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The Honourable John Howard, Prime Minister of Australia. The Australian Liberal Party’s best or worst long term asset? (Photo: Robb Cox/Getty Images)

I haven’t had a good comment on the state of politics in this nation for a while, so I’ll begin with a look at the recent issue dominating the press - the will he; won’t he; should we push him; will Jannette push him; will he jump; does he like Kiribilli too much; does Jannette like Kiribilli too much; questions surrounding our current Prime Minister, John Winston Howard.

The APEC meeting in Sydney was meant to be a crowning moment of glory in the lead up to the 2007 (unless it’s 2008 to spoil Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s KEVIN07 campaign) Federal Election. It ended up being far from the smiles and happy snaps that the Honourable Member for Bennalong had wanted. Kevin Rudd upstaged him with his talks, in mandarin, with the President of China, to the extent that regardless of his status as either Prime Minister, Opposition Leader or retired politician in 2008 he will be a personal invitee of the Chinese Government at the Beijing Olympics. The hatred of this little upstart and his ability to be equally adept on the international stage was available for all to see, with Howard and his Foreign Minister, and Member for Mayo, Alexander Downer refusing to don a pair of headphones and listen to what the Opposition Leader was saying - the only two in the room from reports.

John Howard with the APEC funny dress competition - this time Australia’s Drizabone Raincoats (Photo: Kristian Dowling/Getty Images)

During APEC it has emerged that senior figures in the Liberal Party ministry (after all, the Nationals for all their pomp and ceremony have no real power within the coalition, nor are willing to actually stand up when there’s an issue that differentiates them from their conservative big brothers in the Coalition) mulled over the possibility of replacing their presidential style leader with an alternative. It is here that, despite the disquiet in the ranks of backbenchers in both the upper and lower houses (no doubt worried about the potential loss of income and even their life pensions and travel concessions), they have no alternative.

John Howard, despite all his purported support for Peter Costello, has spent the better part of the past decade white anting any leadership aspirations (the word’s in vogue, it had to be used) that the latter has had. The reason is simply that Howard has been fearful of any forced attempt to take over the reigns of what he sees as his rightful spot in the party - following his Lazarus like return to leadership after his abysmal failures in Treasury and then as Opposition leader during the heady eighties. His leadership style does not allow dissent in any real form, in a far stronger move than previous leaders of either the Liberal Party (again, see note of the lack of backbone amongst the National members of Parliament for why they don’t figure here) or the Labor Party. To cross John Winston Howard and his will is to lose your preselection, unless your constituency is willing to back you to the hilt and there is no chance of branch stacking, in which case you had best be prepared for a character assassination the likes of which only whistleblowers against the sitting Federal Government have received.

In addition to this white anting, it has been clear that Howard has a preconceived notion that he will ordain his successor - and he has thus been grooming the member for Warringah (though representing far more people in the Mosman region than those “unfortunates” living over the northern side of the Spit Bridge) Tony Abbott for succession. That was until, of course, the RU486 debacle that saw Abbott’s personal religious beliefs guide, completely, as Health Minister the banning of the availability of the drug as an alternative for non-surgical abortions. The reaction was swift and fierce. A private members bill, cosponsored by female members of four of the parties in Parliament - Liberal, Labor, the Greens and the Nationals - was introduced and in one of the few true displays of democracy members from all parties were given the right to ignore party lines and vote according to their conscience. With the removal of Health Minister’s oversight on the topic it has become clear that to the vast population of Australia he is a lame duck in the near future for leadership of the Coalition.

The Alternative Liberal Leaders

This is where the Liberal Party comes unstuck. Without the iron fist of John Howard the party is likely to end up in a squabbling mess reminiscent of the days of the Hawke Labor Government. The alternatives to Howard, and the real or perceived problems are deemed to be:

Peter Costello - Member for Higgins

Costello has long aspired to the leadership of the Liberal Party, or more correctly, the power and prestige that would be bestowed on a Liberal Prime Minister. After eleven years as Treasurer the man does have some credentials for the leadership position, however the problem is the continual white anting over the best part of a decade that Howard and his supporters has severely damaged his credibility and standing within the community. Further, his inability to properly confront Howard over the leadership issue, or even take a stand, has further weakened his potential as an alternative.

Alexander Downer - Member for Mayo

The once failed leader of the Liberal Party while in the political wilderness is an unlikely candidate for the top job. An ardent supported of Howard, and one might suspect veremently opposed to any Costello takeover, he is unlikely to get the numbers. This is partly due to his image amongst the community of lording over the his ministry, and in some respects the nation, failures with the Australian Wheat Board in Iraq, vocal supporter of the Iraqi Experiment, earning him the nickname Lord Downer of Baghdad.

Malcolm Turnbull - Member for Wentworth

A newcomer to Parliament, but definitely not to the Liberal Party. Having snatched preselection from the sitting member prior to the last election Turnbull has shown he is not one to shy away from a fight. Being placed in the Environment Ministry in his first term should have been a large achievement, but his lack of commitment to real environmental reform in such a key area as climate change, and the recent highlighting of major problems with his and Howards water plan, have definitely dampened his image. While a natural for treasury with his background in the finance sector his talents are definitely not being used to their full as both of the key positions are filled by long term ministers - Peter Costello and Nick Minchin. The biggest problem is overcoming the sense in the community that he is a more arrogant and toffy version of Paul Keating.

Dr Brendan Nelson - Member for Bradfield

The Doctor who came in from the cold. There is one thing that will definitely keep Nelson away from having a chance of winning the keys to the lodge and that is his status as a turncoat. His latest run with Defence has not helped one iota either and must be feeling that it was always a poisoned chalice that was dumped on him due to his defection to the Liberal Party from Labor. His only real hope is to amass a large amount of knowledge and retire to the private defence sector as a consultant with key links to top brass, defence officials and possibly the Government.

Tony Abbott - Member for Warringah

While Abbott definitely has the support of the incumbent, having been a loyal headkicker with New South Wales’ Senator Bill Heffernan, his incursion into the field of fertility based on his Catholic faith has made him damaged goods for a long time to come. Women don’t easily forgive such incursions based on a singular persons faith in this nation, regardless of its Christian background. An unlikely leader in the near term, and will struggle in the long term to regain the foothold that his mentor Howard has created for him.

Phillip Ruddock - Member for Berowra

The face behind a number of Government scandals and the present Attorney General. His presence in the party has diminished since his role as Immigration Minister in the border policy that has been so controversial with many church groups and refugee representatives. His actions as Attorney General have often been questioned by those in law as highly partisan representation of the law. While he enjoys a healthy majority in his home seat he has not warmed to the population as leadership material.

Kevin Andrews - Member for Menzies

The poor startled bunny of the party that was thrust into the headlights with Industrial Relations reform. One can only summise that this was the political equivalent of a suicide bombing mission. His reputation hasn’t been helped since being given a demotion (reward for taking the flack some may say) to the become the Minister for Immigration & Citizenship. Rank outsider at best.

Mal Brough - Member for Longman

Recently brought on board as the Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, Brough has spearheaded the recent Prime Ministerial initiative of Aboriginal community intervention through the use of the Australian military. Relatively green in the ministry another outsider, more likely to act as a conduit for back bencher concern and perceived to be willing to call a spade a spade.

Joe Hockey - Member for North Sydney

Hockey is the present Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, having been passed the poisoned chalice from the lips of Kevin Andrews. His appeal has diminished since taking the role, with people particularly concerned about his about face on thoughts about the Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd. Having spent five years as partners on the Channel 7 morning show Sunrise Hockey was initially warm about Rudd, until Howard reigned in the member for North Sydney. Since then Hockey has been on the attack, with character assassination the prime weapon, and with Rudd retiring from his Sunrise slot Hockey has had a free run with the media. Not considered worthy of the Liberal crown yet, though he represents the more progressive arm of the party.

Helen Coonan - Senator for New South Wales

The first of two ladies that have high profiles within the Howard Government. Coonan is the current Minister for Communications, Information Technology and the Arts, and a previous Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer. Labor has a significant hold over the Coalition on Telecommunications with their broadband policy (even if the Treasurer attempts to spoil this by passing laws preventing access to money from the future fund to invest in upgrading a dilapidated broadband network in their proposed public-private partnership) and Telstra presents an ever present thorn in the backside leaving her with little room to move. With the Liberal Party in its present form it is unlikely that a woman will obtain the leadership, and I suspect will be forced to be content with deputy leader of the Liberal Party at best (given that the Deputy Prime Minister position defaults to the leader of the National Party).

Julie Bishop - Member for Curtin

Making all the correct noises for the Conservative Movement, Julie Bishop has been making waves as the Minister for Education. Most recently she lambasted the political brainwashing at a Northern Beaches Public High School in their Rock Eisteddfod entry (critical of the war in Iraq) while quietly ignoring odes to Gough Whitlam and another heavily critical of China - both coming from Private Schools. Her bias to the right, and the “Culture Wars” in particular, has made her a favourite of the darling right, however, like Coonan, the lack of a penis is likely to prevent her taking control of the Party.

Mark Vaile - Member for Lyne

I thought I should probably mention the absolute rank outsider. As a member of the National Party, Vaile is by default the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia. As a result of that membership he is more likely to become the President of the United States of America than lead the Coalition, and the same applies for any aspiring National leaders. Interestingly there is not an incredible amount of goodwill over his role as Minister for Trade in the Wheat for Weapons scandal of the Australian Wheat Board.

So Who’s Leading Again?

For the Liberal Party this election, as always under the current management, is a case of live or die. Howard has come out today (12th September) to claim that this weeks leadership speculation occurred at his behest after asking his close ally Downer to canvas the thinking within the Party. It is reported that the word that came back to him was that there was a belief that he should step aside. His response was one of gritty determination - Howard will lead the Liberal Party, and the Coalition, to the next election (and he will decide when that election will be, and the circumstances in which he calls it, most likely within a fortnight, but maybe a bit more if he feels something in the wind or needs to pass a few more bits of legislation with both houses of Parliament in his hands). Should the Coalition lose it is highly likely that a bitter leadership feud will break out. The white anting of Costello that has occurred over the past decade has reduced the trust that the Australian public could have for him, and combined by his lack of backbone for a fight (unlike the Labor Party, or even the Liberals of old), he is unlikely to be a successful leader if he is not given the mantle mid term. The alternatives are far less palatable to the public - the main players Turnbull, Abbott, Nelson and Downer have no where near the support levels that they need.

What will make this election so much harder for the Prime Minister is that he will have to split campaigning time between his seat and the nation at large. Having fashioned the election campaigns since 1996 around a Presidential style leader he must be seen all over the country with the local members. The problem with this is that his seat has become marginal through a combination of redefined boundaries and changing demographics in the seat of Bennalong, thus making campaigning to hold his seat against former ABC journalist Maxine McKew who has boosted the popularity of Labor in the seat.

My thought as to what will happen is that if the Liberals do lose office Costello will be handed the leadership he craved for so very long, however it will not be as Prime Minister but rather the Leader of the Opposition. Within a year Malcolm Turnbull will mount a challenge, most probably with the support of Julie Bishop at his side as Deputy, and win easily. He will then have to get the voting public on side and destroy the “wealthy-toffy-intellectual” image he has built up as an investment banker, unless he can show to the Australian public (finally) that being intelligent is not something one should be denigrated for, but rather is something that one should be held up for. This will be harder again without the access to resources and financing from the taxpayer that the Government of the day enjoys. That task is more mammoth than any other for him. This will all happen though within a Party decimated by losing an election that many political commentators have come out saying that the swing to Labor doesn’t make any sense. Should the Liberals regain office they will undoubtedly face a Senate that they do not control and with a far slimmer majority in the Lower House, possibly even a minority government. Should Howard lose his seat, the Liberal Party will undoubtedly demand that one of Sydney’s safe seat occupying backbenchers vacate their seat. This was thought to be Alan Cadman, the Member for Mitchell (the Hills district in Sydney’s North-West), however this has since been put under a cloud after Alex Hawke, the conservative Liberal best known for knifing John Brogden in the back through strategically leaking certain documents and never punished for the loss by the NSW Liberals for the subsequent loss of an election that they should never have lost in March of this year, deposed the sitting member in a preselection battle tarnished by branch stacking.

It will certainly be an interesting election.

Update

It would appear that Tony Abbott is now trying to white ant Malcolm Turnbull, perhaps to prevent a tilt at the leadership in the new political year. Who knows why the Mad Monk has said it, but this is what his thoughts on Mr Turnbull have been put on record as:

“I think Malcolm’s got a big future in politics.

“He certainly doesn’t rate with the prime minister, the treasurer, the foreign minister and others, but Malcolm has shown he is a quick mover and he brings a bit of star quality to our team.

“I think he’s got a lot to contribute in the years ahead.”

Taken from the Sydney Morning Herald article Turnbull ‘doesn’t rate’: Abbott.